There’s been a lot of talk lately about an economic recession. Technically, a recession is a significant and prolonged economic decline. It’s generally defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, as measured by a country’s gross domestic product. When a recession occurs, you’ll likely feel its impact on your finances – there will be fewer jobs, lower wages and more businesses tend to fail.
How did we get to a point where a recession is a real possibility? In a bid to rescue the economy from the damage done by the pandemic, central banks turned to ultra-low interest rates and governments used a variety of fiscal stimulus measures to kick-start growth. While this strategy encouraged spending, it also led to rising inflation as the cost of goods and services soared. In response, central banks worked to contain inflation by raising interest rates aggressively, hoping to dampen consumer and business demand. As the economy turns sluggish and debt levels increase amid sharply higher borrowing costs, a recession may ensue.
What’s the impact of a recession?
Many people fear recessions, given the expected economic weakness and instability. If economic growth slows and debt piles up, businesses may pause expansion plans and lay off a portion of their workforce. High unemployment curbs spending as many individuals and families manage their finances more cautiously.
In the early stages of a recession, we encounter rising prices on goods and services as inflationary pressures mount, causing higher interest rates and decreased purchasing power. Trying to make money stretch and maintain their quality of life without accumulating too much debt, people often forego discretionary expenses like travel and dining out, which slows the economy in general and negatively impacts businesses in those industries.
While the economy typically expands over time, recessions are a normal part of the economic cycle. According to the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research, the average recession since World War II has only lasted about 10 months, but it can be a challenging time for consumers and investors.
Investing in recessionary times
Since the economy slows in a recession, stock markets often decline to reflect diminished prospects for business growth. It’s tempting to sell during a severe market downturn, but that’s usually an unsound strategy. Reacting rashly to short-term market declines may keep you from reaching your goals by locking in your losses and eroding your wealth.
Remember that recessions come and go, and the overall market’s long-term trend is upwards. With help from your advisor, you can stay focused on your financial goals and ignore short-term market challenges. Depending on your circumstances, risk tolerance and time horizon, your advisor may even recommend investing more during a market downturn when prices are lower, so you can be better positioned to benefit when the economy rebounds. It’s also generally wise to hold a well-diversified portfolio across asset classes, industries and geographies, which may help reduce portfolio risk while enhancing long-term return potential.
Speak with your advisor for more on how to navigate recessionary times.
For definitions of technical terms in this piece, please visit iaclarington.com/glossary and speak with your investment advisor.
The information provided should not be acted upon without obtaining legal, tax, and investment advice from a licensed professional. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees, brokerage fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments, including investments in exchange-traded series of mutual funds. The information presented herein may not encompass all risks associated with mutual funds. Please read the prospectus before investing. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently, and past performance may not be repeated.
The iA Clarington Funds are managed by IA Clarington Investments Inc. iA Clarington and the iA Clarington logo, iA Wealth and the iA Wealth logo, and iA Global Asset Management and the iA Global Asset Management logo are trademarks of Industrial Alliance Insurance and Financial Services Inc. and are used under license.